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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

22.08%

decreased by 2.05%

1 Week

22.41%

decreased by 1.72%

1 Month

23.27%

decreased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2452
8.98***
αARCH0.1759
7.52***
βGARCH0.7613
31.43***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0088
4.63***

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2452
8.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1759
7.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7613
31.43***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0088
4.63***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days