MSCI COLCAP Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.45%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
12.99%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
14.30%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2834 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1761 | 7.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7546 | 29.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 0.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0261 | 1.18 |
| γ3 | -0.0700 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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