V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
20.83%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Week
21.30%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Month
22.52%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2468 | 8.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1768 | 7.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7608 | 31.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0087 | 4.56*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2468 | 8.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1768 | 7.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7608 | 31.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0087 | 4.56*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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