V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.45%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
13.92%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
15.24%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0596 | 6.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 4.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7911 | 40.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1100 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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