V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.28%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Week
15.55%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
16.33%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0599 | 26.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1093 | 19.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7897 | 162.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1100 | 8.22*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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