V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
15.02%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
15.32%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
16.18%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 101% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0597 | 6.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1083 | 4.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7911 | 40.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.1095 | 2.06** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0597 | 6.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 4.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7911 | 40.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1095 | 2.06** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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