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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.66%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

18.58%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

18.34%

decreased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 118% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0588
25.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0988
19.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7958
160.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1168
8.93***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days