Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

18.29%

increased by 1.13%

1 Week

18.28%

increased by 1.12%

1 Month

18.24%

increased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0593
6.64***
αARCH0.1072
4.95***
βGARCH0.7928
41.39***
γleverage0.1094
2.07**

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0593
6.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1072
4.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7928
41.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1094
2.07**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days