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MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.91%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Week

16.12%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Month

16.73%

decreased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0595
6.64***
αARCH0.1077
4.96***
βGARCH0.7920
41.22***
γleverage0.1099
2.07**

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0595
6.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1077
4.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7920
41.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1099
2.07**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days