MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.91%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
16.12%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
16.73%
decreased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0595 | 6.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1077 | 4.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7920 | 41.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.1099 | 2.07** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0595 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 4.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7920 | 41.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1099 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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