MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.66%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
18.58%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
18.34%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 118% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0588 | 25.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0988 | 19.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7958 | 160.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1168 | 8.93*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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