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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.28%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

15.55%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Month

16.33%

decreased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0599
26.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1093
19.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7897
162.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1100
8.22***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days