V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
18.25%
increased by 2.78%
1 Week
18.32%
increased by 2.85%
1 Month
18.56%
increased by 3.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0399 | 2.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.2279 | 8.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7460 | 40.14*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0399 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2279 | 8.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7460 | 40.14*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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