V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
18.99%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
19.02%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
19.12%
decreased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0400 | 2.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.2281 | 8.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7456 | 40.01*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0400 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2281 | 8.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7456 | 40.01*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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