V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.41%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Week
14.81%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Month
15.98%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 83% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.31 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0588 | 27.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1688 | 37.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8112 | 174.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2261 | 16.92*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3098 | 29.60*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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