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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.41%

decreased by 1.62%

1 Week

14.81%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Month

15.98%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of MSCI COLCAP Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 83% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.31 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0588
27.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1688
37.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8112
174.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2261
16.92***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3098
29.60***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days