Skip to main content
V-Lab

Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.07%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

16.12%

increased by 0.82%

1 Month

18.98%

increased by 3.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.41 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1098
10.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1110
14.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8344
134.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0790
7.30***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.4116
16.18***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days