V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.07%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
16.12%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
18.98%
increased by 3.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.41 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1098 | 10.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 14.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8344 | 134.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0790 | 7.30*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.4116 | 16.18*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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