Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.28%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Week
18.30%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
21.24%
increased by 2.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 2003 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 112% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1135 | 15.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1353 | 11.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7557 | 76.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1512 | 8.63*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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