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V-Lab

Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026

1 Day

20.88%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

21.19%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

22.23%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8042
8.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1133
36.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9749
313.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9771
13.59***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days