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Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

19.80%

decreased by 1.92%

1 Week

20.19%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Month

21.44%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 4.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7967
2.12**
αARCH0.1137
9.22***
βGARCH0.9748
78.02***
νDF4.9714
3.40***

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7967
2.12**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1137
9.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9748
78.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9714
3.40***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days