V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.96%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
13.94%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
16.85%
increased by 3.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7983 | 8.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1140 | 36.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9748 | 311.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9692 | 13.66*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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