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V-Lab

Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026

1 Day

12.96%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

13.94%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

16.85%

increased by 3.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7983
8.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1140
36.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9748
311.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9692
13.66***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days