V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
20.88%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
21.19%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
22.23%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8042 | 8.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1133 | 36.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9749 | 313.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9771 | 13.59*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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