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Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 6th, 2026

1 Day

16.09%

increased by 1.46%

1 Week

16.75%

increased by 2.12%

1 Month

18.84%

increased by 4.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 4.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7949
2.12**
αARCH0.1139
9.24***
βGARCH0.9749
78.15***
νDF4.9737
3.41***

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7949
2.12**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1139
9.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9749
78.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9737
3.41***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days