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Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, November 1st, 2026

1 Day

39.95%

decreased by 4.63%

1 Week

39.38%

decreased by 5.20%

1 Month

37.41%

decreased by 7.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 29, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 6.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.9827
2.58***
αscore0.1324
9.03***
βpersistence0.9725
89.72***
νDF6.1102
2.59***

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.9827
2.58***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1324
9.03***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9725
89.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1102
2.59***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days