Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
19.80%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Week
20.19%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Month
21.44%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 4.97 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7967 | 2.12** |
| αARCH | 0.1137 | 9.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9748 | 78.02*** |
| νDF | 4.9714 | 3.40*** |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7967 | 2.12** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1137 | 9.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9748 | 78.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9714 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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