Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, November 1st, 2026
1 Day
39.95%
decreased by 4.63%
1 Week
39.38%
decreased by 5.20%
1 Month
37.41%
decreased by 7.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 29, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 6.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.9827 | 2.58*** |
| αscore | 0.1324 | 9.03*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9725 | 89.72*** |
| νDF | 6.1102 | 2.59*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.9827 | 2.58*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1324 | 9.03*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9725 | 89.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1102 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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