V-Lab
Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.35%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
15.50%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
18.71%
increased by 4.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.28) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0907 | 12.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1182 | 22.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8465 | 127.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2766 | 10.37*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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