MSCI Asia Pacific EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
17.64%
increased by 2.50%
1 Week
17.68%
increased by 2.54%
1 Month
17.82%
increased by 2.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 184% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 184% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0069 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.1653 | 11.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9782 | 278.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0792 | -6.34*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1653 | 11.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9782 | 278.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0792 | -6.34*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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