FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index - Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
10.20%
increased by 1.97%
1 Week
10.47%
increased by 2.24%
1 Month
11.44%
increased by 3.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0144 | 24.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1933 | 36.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7658 | 227.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0661 | 8.85*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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