V-Lab
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index - Kuala Lumpur Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
11.69%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
11.84%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
12.44%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 291 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 90% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~291 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 90% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0086 | 5.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0735 | 6.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8910 | 108.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0663 | 2.81*** |
0.998
Persistence291d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0086 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 6.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8910 | 108.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0663 | 2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
291 days
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