FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index - Kuala Lumpur Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
9.81%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
10.01%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
10.74%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 10:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 303 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 90% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0086 | 21.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 26.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8909 | 433.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0664 | 11.24*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
303 days
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