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V-Lab

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index - Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

11.25%

increased by 0.86%

1 Week

11.33%

increased by 0.94%

1 Month

11.57%

increased by 1.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index - Kuala Lumpur Composite Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4842
4.65***
αARCH0.1239
9.68***
βGARCH0.8421
62.61***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0256
0.62
γ20.0367
0.60
γ3-0.1965
-3.92***
γ40.2397
4.46***
γ5-0.1454
-2.62***
γ60.0286
0.54
γ70.0854
1.89*
γ8-0.1528
-3.14***
γ90.1303
1.92*

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4842
4.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1239
9.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8421
62.61***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0256
0.62
γ20.0367
0.60
γ3-0.1965
-3.92***
γ40.2397
4.46***
γ5-0.1454
-2.62***
γ60.0286
0.54
γ70.0854
1.89*
γ8-0.1528
-3.14***
γ90.1303
1.92*

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days