V-Lab
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index - Kuala Lumpur Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
10.44%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
10.45%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
10.53%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 198% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 198% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0707 | 5.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7143 | 31.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.1399 | 5.91*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0025 | 2.29** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0444 | 5.22*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9531 | 105.60*** |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0707 | 5.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7143 | 31.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1399 | 5.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0025 | 2.29** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0444 | 5.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9531 | 105.60*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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