FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index - Kuala Lumpur Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
9.32%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
9.55%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
10.38%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 171 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0064 | 13.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1091 | 45.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8869 | 416.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1791 | 18.78*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
171 days
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