V-Lab
Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.74%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
11.79%
increased by 1.47%
1 Month
12.87%
increased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Jun 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 127% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1610 | 23.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4262 | 25.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2040 | 17.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0256 | 2.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0892 | 3.94*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8843 | 33.95*** |
Persistence:
0.689
Half-life:
2 days
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