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V-Lab

Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.74%

increased by 0.42%

1 Week

11.79%

increased by 1.47%

1 Month

12.87%

increased by 2.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Jun 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 127% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1610
23.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4262
25.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2040
17.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0256
2.79***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0892
3.94***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8843
33.95***

Persistence:

0.689

Half-life:

2 days