V-Lab
Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.18%
increased by 0.85%
1 Week
10.75%
increased by 1.42%
1 Month
11.62%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Jun 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6584 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2418 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6027 | 14.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3782 | -2.86*** |
| γ2 | 0.6000 | 3.33*** |
| γ3 | -0.4081 | -2.67*** |
| γ4 | 0.2505 | 1.44 |
| γ5 | -0.0440 | -0.31 |
| γ6 | -0.0059 | -0.05 |
| γ7 | -0.0470 | -0.39 |
| γ8 | 0.0493 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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