Skip to main content
V-Lab

Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.18%

increased by 0.85%

1 Week

10.75%

increased by 1.42%

1 Month

11.62%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Jun 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6584
3.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2418
7.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6027
14.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.3782
-2.86***
γ20.6000
3.33***
γ3-0.4081
-2.67***
γ40.2505
1.44
γ5-0.0440
-0.31
γ6-0.0059
-0.05
γ7-0.0470
-0.39
γ80.0493
0.61

Persistence:

0.845

Half-life:

4 days