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V-Lab

Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.85%

increased by 1.05%

1 Week

12.37%

increased by 1.57%

1 Month

13.67%

increased by 2.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ljubljana Stock Exchange Slovenian Blue-Chip SBITOP Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Jun 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9881
10.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1623
25.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9388
156.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8546
9.97***

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days