Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
24.09%
1 Week
23.83%
1 Month
22.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0282 | 9.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0878 | 8.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9032 | 102.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.8105 | 5.51*** |
| δpower | 1.0848 | 10.83*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0282 | 9.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9032 | 102.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8105 | 5.51*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0848 | 10.83*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
Other Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices