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Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

24.09%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Week

23.83%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Month

22.95%

decreased by 2.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.08 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0282
9.24***
αARCH0.0878
8.17***
βGARCH0.9032
102.94***
γleverage0.8105
5.51***
δpower1.0848
10.83***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0282
9.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0878
8.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9032
102.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8105
5.51***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0848
10.83***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days