S&P/ASX 200 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
8.93%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
9.26%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
10.30%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0205 | 22.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0135 | 6.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8945 | 422.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1317 | 24.25*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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