S&P/ASX 200 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.05%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
9.37%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
10.37%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0205 | 22.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0134 | 6.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8947 | 422.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1315 | 24.23*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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