S&P/ASX 200 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
13.22%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
13.26%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
13.40%
decreased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0204 | 5.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0133 | 1.69* |
| βGARCH | 0.8953 | 106.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.1305 | 6.06*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0204 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0133 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8953 | 106.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1305 | 6.06*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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