V-Lab
BIST 30 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
21.20%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
21.66%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
23.28%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0571 | 16.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0808 | 36.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9092 | 390.88*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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