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V-Lab

BIST 30 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

22.34%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

23.12%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

25.73%

increased by 2.85%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BIST 30 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0396
12.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7942
130.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1174
21.36***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3883
3.78***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8281
9.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0805
0.70

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days