V-Lab
BIST 30 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
22.34%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
23.12%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
25.73%
increased by 2.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0396 | 12.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7942 | 130.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1174 | 21.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3883 | 3.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8281 | 9.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0805 | 0.70 |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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