V-Lab
BIST 30 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
20.99%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
21.24%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
22.20%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 309 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.1116 | 6.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0602 | 65.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 3,157.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4954 | 12.06*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
309 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices