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V-Lab

MSCI Europe MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.56%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

15.59%

decreased by 1.01%

1 Month

15.88%

decreased by 0.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8190
212.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2278
40.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0078
6.06***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0608
6.29***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9322
87.68***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days