MSCI Europe MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.56%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
15.59%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
15.88%
decreased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8190 | 212.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2278 | 40.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0078 | 6.06*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0608 | 6.29*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9322 | 87.68*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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