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MSCI World GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

9.62%

increased by 1.28%

1 Week

9.76%

increased by 1.42%

1 Month

10.25%

increased by 1.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7967
1.91*
αARCH0.0878
9.08***
βGARCH0.9876
149.84***
νDF7.5330
1.70*

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7967
1.91*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0878
9.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9876
149.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5330
1.70*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days