Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

17.07%

increased by 0.42%

1 Week

17.00%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

16.76%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.8023
1.93*
αscore0.0881
9.12***
βpersistence0.9875
150.42***
νDF7.5756
1.69*

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.8023
1.93*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0881
9.12***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9875
150.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5756
1.69*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days