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MSCI World GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

9.90%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

10.03%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

10.48%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.7949
1.93*
αscore0.0876
9.10***
βpersistence0.9876
150.98***
νDF7.5668
1.69*

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.7949
1.93*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0876
9.10***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9876
150.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5668
1.69*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days