V-Lab
MSCI World GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.56%
increased by 0.48%
1 Week
12.61%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
12.78%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8295 | 7.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 35.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 599.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6861 | 6.49*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
Other MSCI World Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices