V-Lab
MSCI World GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
9.62%
increased by 1.28%
1 Week
9.76%
increased by 1.42%
1 Month
10.25%
increased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.53 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7967 | 1.91* |
| αARCH | 0.0878 | 9.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9876 | 149.84*** |
| νDF | 7.5330 | 1.70* |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7967 | 1.91* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 9.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9876 | 149.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5330 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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