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V-Lab

MSCI World GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.43%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

11.50%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

11.79%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8295
7.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
35.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
599.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6861
6.49***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days