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MSCI World GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

10.37%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

10.48%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

10.88%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.55 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7957
1.92*
αARCH0.0876
9.09***
βGARCH0.9876
150.38***
νDF7.5480
1.69*

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7957
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0876
9.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9876
150.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5480
1.69*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days