V-Lab
MSCI World GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
10.37%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
10.48%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
10.88%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.55 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7957 | 1.92* |
| αARCH | 0.0876 | 9.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9876 | 150.38*** |
| νDF | 7.5480 | 1.69* |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7957 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0876 | 9.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9876 | 150.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5480 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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