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V-Lab

Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

9.53%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

10.03%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

10.85%

increased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6926
4.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1374
5.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7220
17.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0260
0.34
γ20.0389
0.32
γ3-0.1540
-1.64
γ40.1657
1.98**
γ5-0.2066
-2.56**
γ60.2774
3.47***
γ7-0.1946
-2.48**
γ80.0649
0.76
γ9-0.0368
-0.55

Persistence:

0.859

Half-life:

5 days