V-Lab
Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
9.53%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
10.03%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
10.85%
increased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6926 | 4.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1374 | 5.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7220 | 17.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0260 | 0.34 |
| γ2 | 0.0389 | 0.32 |
| γ3 | -0.1540 | -1.64 |
| γ4 | 0.1657 | 1.98** |
| γ5 | -0.2066 | -2.56** |
| γ6 | 0.2774 | 3.47*** |
| γ7 | -0.1946 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.0649 | 0.76 |
| γ9 | -0.0368 | -0.55 |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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