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Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

2,750,723.34%

increased by 352,946.32%

1 Week

2,737,174.88%

increased by 339,397.86%

1 Month

2,684,082.41%

increased by 286,305.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1994 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5499
10.75***
αARCH0.0769
184.36***
βGARCH0.9951
4,649.82***
νDF2.0000

0.995

Persistence

140d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5499
10.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0769
184.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9951
4,649.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0000

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

140 days