V-Lab
Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
2,750,723.34%
increased by 352,946.32%
1 Week
2,737,174.88%
increased by 339,397.86%
1 Month
2,684,082.41%
increased by 286,305.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5499 | 10.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0769 | 184.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9951 | 4,649.82*** |
| νDF | 2.0000 |
0.995
Persistence140d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5499 | 10.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0769 | 184.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9951 | 4,649.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0000 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
140 days
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