Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.06%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
10.40%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
11.14%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0847 | 14.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7906 | 74.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0471 | 4.03*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0004 | 0.92 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0041 | 1.95* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9952 | 367.37*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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