V-Lab
Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
12.22%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
12.23%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
12.23%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0027 | 1.73* |
| αARCH | 0.0189 | 4.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9750 | 211.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.2250 | 1.17 |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0027 | 1.73* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0189 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9750 | 211.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2250 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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