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Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

12.22%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

12.23%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

12.23%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1994 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0027
1.73*
αARCH0.0189
4.46***
βGARCH0.9750
211.26***
γleverage0.2250
1.17

0.994

Persistence

113d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0027
1.73*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0189
4.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9750
211.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2250
1.17

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days