Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.35%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
14.26%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Month
14.00%
decreased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.11) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0321 | 14.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0809 | 21.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8723 | 160.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1074 | 2.56** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
Other Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices