Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
14.27%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
14.18%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
13.89%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Oct 29, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0231 | 3.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0501 | 3.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9069 | 58.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0158 | 0.56 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0501 | 3.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 58.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0158 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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