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V-Lab

Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.19%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

11.55%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

12.74%

increased by 1.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 26% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0305
13.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0778
15.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9056
208.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0754
2.97***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5537
24.62***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days