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Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

14.94%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

15.06%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

15.47%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1994 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. The volatility power δ = 1.51 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifeδ = 1.51 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0291
3.51***
αARCH0.0729
4.07***
βGARCH0.9113
57.34***
γleverage0.0887
0.86
δpower1.5141
6.27***

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0291
3.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0729
4.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9113
57.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0887
0.86
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5141
6.27***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days