Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.19%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
11.55%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
12.74%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 26% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0305 | 13.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0778 | 15.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9056 | 208.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0754 | 2.97*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5537 | 24.62*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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