V-Lab
Ecuador Guayaquil Stock Exchange BVG APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
14.94%
1 Week
15.06%
1 Month
15.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1994 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. The volatility power δ = 1.51 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0291 | 3.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0729 | 4.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9113 | 57.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.0887 | 0.86 |
| δpower | 1.5141 | 6.27*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0291 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0729 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9113 | 57.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0887 | 0.86 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5141 | 6.27*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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