V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.90%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
20.57%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
22.16%
increased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 273% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0334 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 222.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0911 | 18.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0082 | 7.52*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0164 | 7.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9795 | 346.72*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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