Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.20%
increased by 0.56%
1 Week
21.76%
increased by 1.12%
1 Month
23.15%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 273% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0334 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 222.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0911 | 18.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0082 | 7.52*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0164 | 7.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9795 | 346.72*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices