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V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.52%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

22.66%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

23.01%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 269% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 269% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0334
2.93***
βGARCH0.8818
62.07***
γleverage0.0899
4.83***
λ₁tau intercept0.0081
1.64
λ₂forecast adj.0.0155
2.30**
λ₃tau persistence0.9804
110.58***

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0334
2.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8818
62.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0899
4.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0081
1.64
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0155
2.30**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9804
110.58***

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days