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V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

19.90%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

20.57%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

22.16%

increased by 1.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 273% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0334
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8804
222.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0911
18.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0082
7.52***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0164
7.18***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9795
346.72***

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

17 days