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V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

18.91%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

19.45%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

20.98%

increased by 1.56%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 271% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0335
11.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8811
225.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0907
18.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0081
7.68***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0157
7.30***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9802
366.16***

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days