V-Lab
Dow Jones Transportation Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
18.91%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
19.45%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
20.98%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 271% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0335 | 11.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8811 | 225.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0907 | 18.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0081 | 7.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0157 | 7.30*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9802 | 366.16*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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