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V-Lab

MSCI USA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

11.82%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

12.28%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

13.49%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI USA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8497
237.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1850
42.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0104
5.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0620
4.40***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9274
58.14***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days