MSCI USA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.82%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
12.28%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
13.49%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8497 | 237.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1850 | 42.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 5.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0620 | 4.40*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9274 | 58.14*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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