V-Lab
MSCI USA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
11.23%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
11.63%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
12.48%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8495 | 68.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1855 | 11.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0103 | 1.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0613 | 2.03** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9281 | 25.99*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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