V-Lab
MSCI USA GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
11.45%
increased by 1.00%
1 Week
11.65%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
12.34%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0171 | 5.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0939 | 10.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8910 | 100.70*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0171 | 5.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0939 | 10.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8910 | 100.70*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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