V-Lab
MSCI USA GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
15.46%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
15.50%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
15.67%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0170 | 21.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0937 | 42.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8914 | 403.16*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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