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Dow Jones South Africa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

18.30%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

18.30%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

18.31%

decreased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 253% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 253% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0294
5.92***
αARCH0.0361
3.69***
βGARCH0.8962
92.81***
γleverage0.0913
3.82***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0294
5.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0361
3.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8962
92.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0913
3.82***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days