V-Lab
Dow Jones South Africa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.30%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
18.30%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
18.31%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 253% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 253% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0294 | 5.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0361 | 3.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8962 | 92.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0913 | 3.82*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0294 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0361 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8962 | 92.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0913 | 3.82*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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