Dow Jones South Africa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.35%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
15.50%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
16.00%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 251% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0306 | 24.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0374 | 14.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8928 | 364.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0938 | 15.36*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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