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Dow Jones South Africa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.12%

increased by 0.51%

1 Week

16.22%

increased by 0.61%

1 Month

16.58%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 253% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 253% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0295
5.93***
αARCH0.0362
3.70***
βGARCH0.8959
92.71***
γleverage0.0916
3.82***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0295
5.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0362
3.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8959
92.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0916
3.82***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days