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V-Lab

S&P Total Market Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

9.58%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

10.38%

increased by 0.88%

1 Month

12.54%

increased by 3.04%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Total Market Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 130% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 130% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0472
7.91***
αARCH0.1849
4.12***
βGARCH0.6558
24.16***
γleverage0.2400
3.80***

0.961

Persistence

17d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0472
7.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1849
4.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6558
24.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2400
3.80***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days