Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.00%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
14.20%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
14.85%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0302 | 12.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0107 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 408.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1483 | 19.39*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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