Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
17.42%
increased by 3.66%
1 Week
17.43%
increased by 3.67%
1 Month
17.45%
increased by 3.69%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0108 | 0.80 |
| βGARCH | 0.8914 | 102.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.1468 | 4.83*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0108 | 0.80 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8914 | 102.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1468 | 4.83*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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