V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
15.98%
increased by 4.32%
1 Week
15.98%
increased by 4.32%
1 Month
16.01%
increased by 4.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2946 | 6.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.1020 | 9.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8625 | 61.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0304 | 1.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0039 | 0.09 |
| γ3 | -0.1291 | -3.67*** |
| γ4 | 0.1979 | 4.82*** |
| γ5 | -0.1906 | -2.69*** |
| γ6 | 0.1126 | 1.29 |
| γ7 | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.0253 | -0.51 |
| γ9 | -0.0082 | -0.24 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2946 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1020 | 9.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8625 | 61.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0304 | 1.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0039 | 0.09 |
| γ3 | -0.1291 | -3.67*** |
| γ4 | 0.1979 | 4.82*** |
| γ5 | -0.1906 | -2.69*** |
| γ6 | 0.1126 | 1.29 |
| γ7 | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.0253 | -0.51 |
| γ9 | -0.0082 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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