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Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

15.98%

increased by 4.32%

1 Week

15.98%

increased by 4.32%

1 Month

16.01%

increased by 4.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2946
6.22***
αARCH0.1020
9.68***
βGARCH0.8625
61.58***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0304
1.04
γ20.0039
0.09
γ3-0.1291
-3.67***
γ40.1979
4.82***
γ5-0.1906
-2.69***
γ60.1126
1.29
γ70.0000
0.00
γ8-0.0253
-0.51
γ9-0.0082
-0.24

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2946
6.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1020
9.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8625
61.58***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0304
1.04
γ20.0039
0.09
γ3-0.1291
-3.67***
γ40.1979
4.82***
γ5-0.1906
-2.69***
γ60.1126
1.29
γ70.0000
0.00
γ8-0.0253
-0.51
γ9-0.0082
-0.24

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days