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V-Lab

Blom Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

17.84%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

20.90%

increased by 3.10%

1 Month

26.04%

increased by 8.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Blom Stock Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 1996 to Apr 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 40% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4155
31.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5207
44.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1183
-7.16***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0009
2.30**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0139
5.88***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9861
375.22***

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days