V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
20.09%
increased by 2.75%
1 Week
20.31%
increased by 2.97%
1 Month
21.14%
increased by 3.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0179 | 13.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 31.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9155 | 358.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2214 | 8.14*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
251 days
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