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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

20.09%

increased by 2.75%

1 Week

20.31%

increased by 2.97%

1 Month

21.14%

increased by 3.80%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0179
13.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0818
31.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9155
358.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2214
8.14***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

251 days