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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.82%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

14.26%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

15.86%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 37% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0287
20.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1496
28.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8178
211.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0549
7.42***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days