V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
13.82%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
14.26%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
15.86%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 37% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0287 | 20.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1496 | 28.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8178 | 211.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0549 | 7.42*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
134 days
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