V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.04%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
14.47%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
16.00%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0284 | 6.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1750 | 44.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8195 | 217.72*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
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