V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
21.43%
increased by 1.19%
1 Week
20.87%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
19.98%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0850 | 18.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7450 | 82.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0760 | 11.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0066 | 2.96*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0305 | 5.02*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9670 | 136.22*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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