V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.41%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
17.56%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
18.06%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0851 | 18.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7441 | 82.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0755 | 11.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0066 | 2.95*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0305 | 5.01*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9670 | 135.85*** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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