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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.64%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

15.51%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

16.84%

increased by 1.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 90% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0851
18.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7442
82.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0763
11.80***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0065
2.95***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0303
5.04***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9672
137.74***

Persistence:

0.867

Half-life:

5 days