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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

21.43%

increased by 1.19%

1 Week

20.87%

increased by 0.63%

1 Month

19.98%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0850
18.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7450
82.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0760
11.77***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0066
2.96***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0305
5.02***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9670
136.22***

Persistence:

0.868

Half-life:

5 days