V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.64%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
15.51%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
16.84%
increased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 90% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0851 | 18.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7442 | 82.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0763 | 11.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0065 | 2.95*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0303 | 5.04*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9672 | 137.74*** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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