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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.32%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

17.54%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

18.38%

increased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0177
13.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0737
18.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9263
349.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0946
6.45***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8492
28.42***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

212 days