V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.32%
1 Week
17.54%
1 Month
18.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0177 | 13.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0737 | 18.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9263 | 349.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0946 | 6.45*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8492 | 28.42*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
212 days
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