Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.91%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
25.19%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
26.33%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 08:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 25% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0173 | 18.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1385 | 20.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9935 | 1,752.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0153 | -4.04*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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