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Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

15.12%

increased by 1.63%

1 Week

15.47%

increased by 1.98%

1 Month

16.78%

increased by 3.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 275 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~275 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0191
3.44***
αARCH0.0878
7.72***
βGARCH0.9097
84.23***
γleverage0.2276
2.13**

0.997

Persistence

275d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0191
3.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0878
7.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9097
84.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2276
2.13**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

275 days