V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
15.43%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
15.77%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
17.05%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 275 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~275 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0191 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0878 | 7.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9097 | 84.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.2268 | 2.13** |
0.997
Persistence275d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0191 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9097 | 84.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2268 | 2.13** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
275 days
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