V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.84%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
13.12%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
14.11%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 344% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0234 | 24.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0329 | 17.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 527.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1133 | 23.62*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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