V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.05%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
13.32%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
14.28%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 344% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0234 | 24.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0330 | 17.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8971 | 527.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1133 | 23.57*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices