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S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.60%

increased by 0.45%

1 Week

15.76%

increased by 0.61%

1 Month

16.35%

increased by 1.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 338% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 338% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0232
6.09***
αARCH0.0331
4.37***
βGARCH0.8976
132.30***
γleverage0.1120
5.87***

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0232
6.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0331
4.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8976
132.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1120
5.87***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days