S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.60%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
15.76%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
16.35%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 338% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 338% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0232 | 6.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0331 | 4.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8976 | 132.30*** |
| γleverage | 0.1120 | 5.87*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0232 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0331 | 4.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8976 | 132.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1120 | 5.87*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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