V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.65%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
13.89%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
14.75%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 340% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 340% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0232 | 6.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0331 | 4.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8975 | 132.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.1124 | 5.87*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0232 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0331 | 4.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8975 | 132.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1124 | 5.87*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
Other S&P SmallCap 600 Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices