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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.65%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

13.89%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

14.75%

increased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 340% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 340% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0232
6.09***
αARCH0.0331
4.36***
βGARCH0.8975
132.14***
γleverage0.1124
5.87***

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0232
6.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0331
4.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8975
132.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1124
5.87***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days