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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

13.78%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

14.02%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

14.86%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 342% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 342% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0233
6.10***
αARCH0.0329
4.35***
βGARCH0.8974
132.13***
γleverage0.1128
5.89***

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0233
6.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0329
4.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8974
132.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1128
5.89***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days