V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.45%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
11.75%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
12.79%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0192 | 5.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0952 | 11.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8943 | 109.68*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0952 | 11.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8943 | 109.68*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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