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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.45%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

11.75%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

12.79%

increased by 1.03%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

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graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.

σ

GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0192
5.61***
αARCH0.0952
11.55***
βGARCH0.8943
109.68***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0192
5.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0952
11.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8943
109.68***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days