V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
12.86%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
13.10%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
13.95%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0193 | 5.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0952 | 11.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8943 | 109.58*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0193 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0952 | 11.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8943 | 109.58*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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