V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
15.75%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
15.94%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
16.62%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Sep 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9361 | 5.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0676 | 5.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9183 | 66.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0463 | -3.42*** |
| γ2 | 0.0730 | 3.41*** |
| γ3 | -0.0364 | -1.46 |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9361 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0676 | 5.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9183 | 66.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0463 | -3.42*** |
| γ2 | 0.0730 | 3.41*** |
| γ3 | -0.0364 | -1.46 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
Other Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices