V-Lab
Dubai Financial Market General Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.36%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
11.97%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
14.09%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2004 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~130 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0312 | 4.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.1159 | 5.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8577 | 69.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.0422 | 1.17 |
0.995
Persistence130d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0312 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1159 | 5.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8577 | 69.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0422 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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