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Dubai Financial Market General Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 20th, 2026

1 Day

11.36%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

11.97%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

14.09%

increased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dubai Financial Market General Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2004 to Sep 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~130 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0312
4.70***
αARCH0.1159
5.93***
βGARCH0.8577
69.32***
γleverage0.0422
1.17

0.995

Persistence

130d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0312
4.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1159
5.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8577
69.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0422
1.17

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

130 days