V-Lab
Dubai Financial Market General Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.44%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
14.90%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
16.56%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2004 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 37% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0316 | 18.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1154 | 23.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8579 | 277.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0424 | 4.71*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
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