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V-Lab

Dubai Financial Market General Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.44%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

14.90%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

16.56%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dubai Financial Market General Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2004 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 37% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0316
18.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1154
23.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8579
277.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0424
4.71***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

126 days