V-Lab
Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
15.33%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
15.89%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
17.61%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1562 | 9.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.1000 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8694 | 66.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0038 | -3.23*** |
| γ2 | 0.0098 | 4.27*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1562 | 9.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1000 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8694 | 66.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0038 | -3.23*** |
| γ2 | 0.0098 | 4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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